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This
Month's Spectrum Summary:
(The
following is an excerpt from the August 2006 issue of Spectrum,
a
proprietary monthly briefing published exclusively for the
clients of I.T. Strategies, Inc. © 2006)
COLOR
ELECTROPHOTOGRAPHY-
Desktop Color Wars Predicted;
Distribution is Key, New Vendors Emerge
With this issue we celebrate the tenth
anniversary of our monthly SPECTRUM client update. To mark
the occasion, besides the newsletter redesign, the I.T. Strategies
consultants decided to turn things around. Instead of editor
Ted Webster interviewing them, they have Marco Boer interview
him. As a seasoned industry observer (see bio below), he shares
some "big picture" insights on what the past ten years have
brought us, and what to expect in the decade to come. What
follows is a small sampling.
Ted first runs through some of the
past newsletter issues that stand out for him. In the first
issue, ten years ago, he finds Mark Hanley predicting industry-changing
developments such as HP's barrage of low-end, narrow format
printers and the arrival of low cost digital cameras. Also
remaining true is the expectation that electrophotography
(EP) and inkjet (IJ) would remain the major applications despite
the many alternative technologies being developed.
Marco wonders what developments have
been the most interesting, the most surprising. Ted finds
almost everything is of interest. The trick, he says, is to
sort out substance from hype and when something is fun and
interesting to research, such as this year's WOW series, knowing
when to stop.
Three megatrends or constant themes
over the past decade come to mind: proprietary technologies
ever less central to business strategies; commoditization
and increasing reliance on ink and other supplies; and color,
or at least color-capability, everywhere. What's the biggest
fear that never happened? An easy question: the paperless
society.
Among the changes over the past decade
mentioned are the ever accelerating flood of new model introductions
at the low end, and industry structure maturity. A count of
the players-the print engine OEMs-shows peak activity in the
1970s with slow decline thereafter. Moving forward, the company
count is expected to flatten out. There will be continuing
mergers and acquisitions, but that attrition will be offset
with new entries as applications evolve.
What might we be seeing in another
ten years? Among Ted's expectations:
| On the consumer and
desktop printer side, most print engine manufacture will
be outsourced. |
| The supplies annuity
will be significantly eroded by third party aftermarket
vendors. |
| EP and IJ technologies
will continue to dominate the mid-range, with inkjet slowly
gaining share thanks to its inherent simplicity and continuing
chemistry and technology developments. |
| Digital press volume,
growing slowly to date, will be accelerating. |
| In the mid- to high-end,
support and services ever more important. |
| Hardcopy and softcopy
will continue to feed off one another for some time. But
in time this will change in part due to our limited "attention
quotient" becoming saturated. This means demand for all
kinds of print, digital and analog, will begin to decline.
But Ted concludes, "Already, in the pages of SPECTRUM
and elsewhere, we've seen lot's of valuable guideposts
to developing a profitable way forward as our industry
continues to reinvent itself." |
Business
Bio: Ted Webster, SPECTRUM Editor Over 15 years with PIA,
Inc. (Printing Industry of America) researching and writing
about printers for the business forms industry in the days
when computer printing was primarily impact line printers
and Flexowriters hammering out data through carbon interleaved
forms. Still earlier, systems analyst, computer programmer
and on the computer operations staff of some Boston area companies
including Raytheon and Sylvania. After PIA founded Datek Information
Services, Inc. to serve the digital printing industry directly.
Datek published Printout and Imaging Supplies Monthly newsletters,
research reports, and staged a variety of well-attended conferences.
In 1988 Datek became part of BIS Strategic Decisions and after
several years pursuing other interests, Ted responded positively
to recruitment by another company that he says attracted him
"with its creativity, spirit, brains and mission," i.e.,
I.T. Strategies.
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