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This
Month's Spectrum Summary:
(The
following is an excerpt from the May 2005 issue of Spectrum,
a
proprietary monthly briefing published exclusively for the
clients of I.T. Strategies, Inc. © 2005)
ANALOG
& DIGITAL PRINTING IN CHINA-
Plug
into the boom, but with caution:
Unique conditions & moving goalposts
This month we debrief with Mark Hanley,
just back from the Seventh World Printing Annual Summit Meeting
Forum/China Print 2005 in Shanghai, where he addressed the
China Digital Printing Forum & CEO Dialogue. His main mission,
however, was to get a better understanding of the status of
printing in China as an emerging global economic powerhouse.
A few of the perspectives he shared
-- In less than five years China is expected to be the world's
third largest print market; currently close to 100,000 printing
enterprises;
--Analog printing, especially offset, in contrast to the developed
world is enjoying rapid growth as an integral part of China's
high growth manufacturing economy, with packaging printing
a major segment.
--Per capita print consumption is currently equivalent to
just $21, less than 10% that of typical developed countries;
--Digital printing is highly regionalized and just beginning
to accelerate.
People have high expectations for digital
printing, but there are major hurdles such as lack of IT infrastructure
and very low cost for analog printing which makes run length
breakeven as low as 100 copies. Applications where cost per
copy is not critical however, such as short run packaging,
look ideal for digital, especially ink jet.
The equipment show was mostly analog,
although Mark did note several digital presses from domestic
manufacturers, some the fruit of partnerships with vendors
that include HP and Scitex Vision. The Founder Group, a fast-growing
Chinese conglomerate, was prominent, demonstrating a wide
range of digital publishing technology including workflow,
proofing and color management systems. Founder has also fielded
a digital press and established a chain of quick print shops.
In the Digital Forum, Chinese speakers
generally agreed digital printing has a strong foothold in
the large commercial centers, but still has a long way to
go. Among the largely untapped frontiers are variable data
printing, print on demand applications, direct mail, and a
range of business applications.
Mark notes that both the economic and
political environments of China are different from that experienced
in countries where digital printing is established and mature.
For this reason he believes digital printing there will enjoy
healthy growth, but the pathway will be quite different than
what we experienced.
China is seen as relevant on several
levels. First, people look to China as a market for technology
and other products not yet in domestic production. Second,
it is achieving growing stature as an outsourcing partner.
Third, China will evolve from outsourcing partner to an ever
stronger competitor as cost considerations give way to quality
considerations. A major variable that will impact China's
relationship to the U.S. and other trading partners on all
three of these levels is the currency evaluation issue, which
remains murky as of this writing.
Mark acknowledges the questions are
both political and economic, but expects although free enterprise
is growing, the system toward which China is moving will be
a hybrid, not entirely free but also not entirely controlled.
This, he says, makes a lot of people uncomfortable, but doesn't
mean it won't work.
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