This Month's Spectrum Summary:

(The following is an excerpt from the December 2004 issue of Spectrum, a proprietary monthly briefing published exclusively for the clients of I.T. Strategies, Inc. © 2004)

Printed Electronics: Fabulous Frontier for Some,
Phantom Hope for Others

Recently there has been much talk in the industry about printed electronics as a potentially important new industrial digital printing application. This month we sit down with Mark Hanley and Patti Williams for a brief overview of the field and a dose of realism as to the possible applications and relevance to our industry.

First we look at the three major printed electronic classes: interconnects, simple components, and more complex components.

Interconnects, or "conductive channels" include printed circuits and antennae. Both the wireless boom and RFID tags are driving today's interest in printed antennae. Although barriers remain to widespread RFID adaptation, the market is already estimated at between $2B-$4B, larger, perhaps than barcoding. Currently interconnects are manufactured by etching or stamping, both subtractive processes in which much more material is wasted than ends up as the circuit. Alternative technologies include electrolysis, seed layer and conductive inks. Of these, because it is both additive and direct, conductive inks hold the most promise, but we need to beware of exaggerated claims currently floating around.

Demand is expected to explode thanks to wireless technology and throwaway consumer electronics. This means the industry is hungry for new technology. Since high speed, economy and high resolution are the controlling requirements, this leads to offset, gravure or screen printing. Digital will compete when it gets fast and economical enough. It already competes for specialized applications. Once parity is achieved, digital will be preferred over analog technology.

Next we look at printing of simple components such as batteries, capacitors and resistors. Printing basic versions is currently being explored and in some cases is in production as with laminar batteries. More complex components such as field effect transistors are being printed. Again, analog technologies are the most promising for such components. A major exception is the organic light-emitting diode (OLED), an important flat display screen technology. Here ink jet looks like a viable digital technology thanks to the discovery of conductive polymers.

Printing interconnects is already viable, but with the exception of OLEDs, printing components is more or less a dream. But in five years or so that may change. And right now it looks like ink jet offers attributes far beyond any analog technology for OLED printing.

It is beyond the scope of this session to try to predict how the economics of printed electronics will shape the industry. This is a problem for the industry to work out in terms of the value chain and where individual companies want to be within it. In the case of analog printed electronics, the hardware and supplies are likely to be simply commodities feeding the giant electronics companies. But as digital becomes the technology of choice there will be more opportunity to build integrated systems that can be integrated into the inseparable data-manufacturing-distribution flow. In this case there is a basis for building a high-value market so the digital system supplier will remain distinct from the customer and the application will be a basis for building new, high value markets.