This Month's Spectrum Summary:

(The following is an excerpt from the April 2004 issue of Spectrum, a proprietary monthly briefing published exclusively for the clients of I.T. Strategies, Inc. © 2004)

drupa 2004 Preview:
Vendors Work Hard for Excitement In the Changing World of Print

This month senior I.T. Strategies' consultants join us to preview drupa 2004 (May 6-19). They see a major change in players since the last edition of this major industry event four years ago. Most of the traditional press companies have apparently abandoned their digital press programs, and consolidations have shrunk the field still further. Also, alternative technologies such as magnetography and ion deposition remain side-lined so today's technology choice is effectively down to either EP or ink jet.

Compared with earlier years, it looks like there will be fewer digital technology introductions judging from the lack of pre-announcements from vendors. One reason may be that digital is now accepted as a viable technology choice by much of the industry, most often to supplement rather than replace their existing analog assets. The digital invasion has been quiet, and will continue to be slow.

Consolidations among the digital players affirm that now high-end digital production printing is the domain of giant companies, the "$5B dollar club" vendors like Xerox, Agfa, HP/Indigo, and Kodak.

Ink jet technology is ready and is primarily relevant to the industrial sector. However, implementation has been slow and fragmented. User education is now seen as the main missing link.

Drupa 2004 is also expected to highlight the trend toward decentralization of print. "Light production" EP from vendors such as Canon and Ricoh is attracting a lot more user dollars than high-end digital presses.

Looking at the major players, we first discuss Kodak. Now with NexPress, Versamark, Encad and other relevant technologies, they are working hard to achieve leadership in digital printing. Distribution channels looks like a weakness that could be addressed with the right acquisition, perhaps a company like Océ. Heidelberg four years ago at drupa had NexPress and demonstrated inkjet. This year their emphasis is digital workflow and their hybrid DI presses rather than pure digital printing. We are reminded that IBM, primarily a Ricoh/Hitachi OEM, still enjoys legacy revenues of perhaps $1B a year from their base of monochrome digital presses, many times the revenues of NexPress.

Drupa 2004 will once again draw a big crowd but is expected to be more subdued as the commercial printing world continues to shrink, new digital production printing leaders emerge and the industry struggles to redefine itself.